Friday, May 31, 2013

New paper finds warming decreases floods

A new paper published in Climate of the Past finds floods are more common during periods of cooling and less frequent during periods of warming, the opposite of the claims of climate alarmists. The paper shows that flooding was more common during the Little Ice Age than during the 20th century or the Medieval Warming Period. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding that global warming leads to fewer floods. The authors also find flood frequency is "under orbital and possibly solar control."

Flood frequency was highest during the periods shaded grey, including the Dark Ages Cooling Period [DCAP] and the Little Ice Age [LIA]

Clim. Past, 9, 1193-1209, 2013
www.clim-past.net/9/1193/2013/
doi:10.5194/cp-9-1193-2013`


Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

B. Vannière1, M. Magny1, S. Joannin1,2, A. Simonneau3, S. B. Wirth4, Y. Hamann4, E. Chapron3, A. Gilli4, M. Desmet5, and F. S. Anselmetti6
1CNRS, UMR6249, Chrono-Environnement, Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
2LGL TPE, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
3ISTO, UMR 7327, CNRS, University of Orléans, BRGM, France
4Geological Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
5GéHCO, UFR ST, Université Francois Rabelais, Tours, France
6Institute of Geological Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland

Abstract. Two lacustrine sediment cores from Lake Ledro in northern Italy were studied to produce chronologies of flood events for the past 10 000 yr. For this purpose, we have developed an automatic method that objectively identifies the sedimentary imprint of river floods in the downstream lake basin. The method was based on colour data extracted from processed core photographs, and the count data were analysed to capture the flood signal. Flood frequency and reconstructed sedimentary dynamics were compared with lake-level changes and pollen inferred vegetation dynamics. The results suggest a record marked by low flood frequency during the early and middle Holocene (10 000–4500 cal BP). Only modest increases during short intervals are recorded at ca. 8000, 7500, and 7100 cal BP. After 4500–4000 cal BP, the record shows a shift toward increased flood frequency. With the exception of two short intervals around 2900–2500 and 1800–1400 cal BP, which show a slightly reduced number of floods, the trend of increasing flood frequency prevailed until the 20th century, reaching a maximum between the 16th and the 19th centuries. Brief-flood frequency increases recorded during the early and middle Holocene can be attributed to cold climatic oscillations. On a centennial time scale, major changes in flood frequency, such as those observed after ca. 4500/4000 and 500 cal BP, can be attributed to large-scale climatic changes such as the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age, which are under orbital and possibly solar control. However, in the Bronze Age and during the Middle Ages and modern times, forest clearing and land use probably partially control the flood activity.

The US fossil-fuel industry is driving a long-term economic boom

The New Prometheus

The domestic energy industry is booming—and driving a U.S. economic revival


WSJ.COM 5/31/13: When the 'shale gale'—the surge in the production of natural gas trapped in very dense shale rock—first came into public view in 2008, the focus was primarily on the energy and environmental implications. But the past couple of years have brought recognition of shale gas's economic consequences, beginning with major job creation in a time of stubbornly high unemployment. President Barack Obama has repeatedly cited the jobs impact of shale, including in his State of the Union address last year and even in one of his debates with Mitt Romney. At the same time, abundant low-cost energy is stimulating a revival of manufacturing in the U.S. as well as increased American economic competitiveness—as angst-ridden European CEOs will tell you. And the change has come quickly. Shale gas, only 2% of total U.S. natural gas production a decade ago, is now nearly 40%.

Comeback

By Charles R. Morris
PublicAffairs, 179 pages, $12.99
image
Ted Wood/Aurora Photos/Corbis
Firestarter A piece of shale alight.

The economic portent of America's unconventional oil-and-gas revolution is at the heart of Charles Morris's "Comeback: America's New Economic Boom." Mr. Morris is the author of a number of books on the U.S. economy and economic history. His most recent, the commendable "The Dawn of Innovation," described the explosive growth that resulted from America's first industrial revolution during the early decades of the 19th century. But it was in 1990, at another time of economic gloom, that Mr. Morris published "The Coming Global Boom," correctly predicting an era of strong economic growth.

Now he is back with a similar argument, namely that "the United States is on the threshold of a long-term economic boom, one that could rival the 1950s-'60s era of industrial dominance." The country, as he sees it, is at a turning point that most people, mired in chronic pessimism, are missing. The source of the boom this time, Mr. Morris says, will be "rising American productivity" and industrial "restructuring" that "has made the United States one of the most desirable manufacturing sites in the world, especially in states like Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Alabama."

The "manufacturing renaissance" in the U.S. is also fueled by what is happening elsewhere. With industrial wages increasing 15% to 20% per year, China is losing what had been the indubitable edge that transformed it into the workshop of the world. There is also the logistical advantage of manufacturing close to North American markets, especially when transportation costs are added in. All this is giving the U.S. renewed impetus as a manufacturing platform for global exports: Japanese auto makers now build cars in the U.S. for export to Europe; the German engineering conglomerate Siemens does the same for gas turbines sold to Saudi Arabia.

But—and this is central to Mr. Morris's argument—what really turbo-charges this American advantage is what he calls "the new X-factor, the American energy advantage," the arrival of low-cost shale gas. Here is the big new chance for American industry. As Mr. Morris puts it, shale gas can be the central pillar of America's coming economic rebound. "Unless something goes horribly wrong," he says, "energy is a game changer." The U.S. and Canada have this ace up their sleeves while, at least at this point, no one else does.

There are other reasons to be optimistic, according to Mr. Morris: The comeback he foresees is bolstered not only by the new availability of inexpensive, abundant energy and the resurgence of manufacturing but also by an uptick in public infrastructure investment and the continuing growth of the health-care sector.

His main focus, however, is the positive economic impact of shale gas. He spends some time on the employment effects. He cites research findings from IHS, a research firm of which I am vice chairman, showing that 1.7 million jobs are currently supported by this unconventional revolution in oil and gas. (That doesn't include the additional jobs resulting from the expansion of manufacturing.) Most of these shale jobs have been created since 2008 and the beginning of the recession. The economic impact of shale, including especially the job numbers, helps explain why public policy has been supportive of shale gas and why state governors focused on economic development are among shale's biggest backers. And the job creation will continue to explode: Mr. Morris argues that this unconventional revolution could support more than four million jobs by the end of this decade.

Mr. Morris adroitly explains the workings of what he calls—no doubt to the alarm of some—"the splendid technology that makes [shale] possible." That is hydraulic fracturing, better known by the now-famous shorthand "fracking." This is the process of injecting water and sand mixed with a small amount of chemicals, under high pressure, to create fractures in rock deep underground that allow gas to flow into the drill hole.

But the author's discussion becomes confusing when he takes on the environmental questions around shale gas. Despite the oft-expressed concerns in the fracking debate about the amount of water used in the process, Mr. Morris points out, such drilling even in gas-rich Texas uses only 1% of the total water consumed in the state. He rightly underlines the importance of properly dealing with the waste water produced from drilling a well, one of the central tasks of proper environmental stewardship. All good, but then he also declares that the most dire portrayal of the environmental risks by anti-fracking critics is "mostly right." Yet then he switches course yet again and concludes that the environmental issues can be managed—although he never really demonstrates that they aren't being managed well in the first place.

Mr. Morris is particularly exercised about "fugitive emissions" of methane from gas production. This is a subject of major debate because methane is 25 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Mr. Morris wholeheartedly embraces the view that this is a very big problem, dismissing analysis that indicates that the risks have been greatly overstated. But in April, the Environmental Protection Agency—which had previously expressed much concern on this subject—significantly lowered its estimate of methane emissions owing to an improved understanding of well operations. Further reductions in the estimates will likely result from the prevalence of "green completions" in new wells, which trap methane instead of allowing it to be flared or vented into the atmosphere.

...

Mr. Morris's worry about exports reflects his fear that there may not be enough natural gas to go around. But today's natural-gas market is constrained by demand, not supply. Just a few weeks ago, the Potential Gas Committee, a nonprofit affiliated with the Colorado School of Mines and the authoritative source on the nation's gas resources, raised its projection for technically recoverable natural gas supplies in the U.S. by 26%.

When he gets to his third pillar—stepped-up spending on roads, bridges, railways and the like—Mr. Morris makes a compelling case that the U.S. is significantly under-investing in the infrastructure needed to support economic growth. "We now spend," he writes, "half as much on public infrastructure relative to the size of the economy as we did fifty years ago." He points, for example, to the deterioration of the inland waterways that tie the Midwest and its industries together and on which the manufacturing revival will depend. It was too late for his book, but the collapse a week ago of I-5 over the Skagit River in Washington state underscores his warnings about the risks from aging infrastructure, including tens of thousands of "structurally deficient" and "functionally obsolete" bridges around the country. Remedying the widespread infrastructure deficiency through public spending, Mr. Morris predicts, will add fuel to a once-again roaring industrial engine. "Infrastructure financed by borrowing has a long and honorable history in the United States," he writes.

...

Overall, "Comeback" captures the major changes set in motion by the unconventional oil and gas revolution. The result, Mr. Morris says, will be higher economic growth and a quickly disappearing federal budget deficit. "Trade and budget deficits will shrink in real terms and cease to dominate the political discourse," he writes. This will in turn change politics: "A vigorously growing economy going into the 2016 election should lock in a liberal ascendancy for a considerable period." To help speed the decline of the deficit, Mr. Morris, who describes himself as an "old-fashioned liberal," calls for moving tax rates up "a good notch," though without addressing the setback that such a "good notch" might mean for the comeback.

...

The contribution of "Comeback" is to cogently lay out the bright economic consequences of the unconventional oil and gas revolution and the revival of manufacturing. Shale gas and tight oil are proving, in ways not expected even a couple of years ago, the fuels of America's comeback. Without them, the economy, instead of gearing up for a comeback, would have been held back even more than it has these past few years.
—Mr. Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, a research and consulting firm, is the author of "The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World." In 2011, he served on the U.S. secretary of energy's subcommittee on the environmental aspects of shale-gas production.

New paper finds another non-hockey-stick in the Pacific Ocean; cooling over past 7,000 years

A new paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs sea surface temperatures over the past 16,000 years and finds that the tropical Pacific has cooled over the past ~7,000 years since the Holocene Climate Optimum. The paper also finds that the frequency and intensity of El Ninos [ENSO] has significantly decreased over the past ~12,000 years, opposite of the claims of climate alarmists. In addition, the paper finds another non-hockey-stick in the North American southwest demonstrating a decrease in both reconstructed temperatures and climate extremes [variability] over the past ~7,000 years.

Prior posts on non-hockey-sticks
Top graph shows sea surface temperatures [SSTs] in red have cooled over the past ~7,000 years. Horizontal axis is thousands of years before the present. Bottom graph shows the frequency and intensity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] has decreased over the past ~12,000 years.
Graph D shows the temperature proxy in the North American southwest has cooled over the past ~7,000 years. 

An enhanced role for the Tropical Pacific on the humid Pleistocene–Holocene transition in southwestern North America


  • Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, USA

Highlights

Tropical Pacific variability is compared to SW N America paleoenvironmental records.
The Tropical Pacific plays a larger role in landscape evolution of the region.
Tropical moisture and transport mechanisms relevant for mid-latitude arid regions.

Abstract

Climate effects on landscape evolution during the Late Pleistocene–Holocene transition (∼14.6–8 ka) in southwestern North America traditionally are linked to the activity of the North American Monsoon and to vegetation change related to a decrease in winter precipitation acting in response to orbital cyclicity. We performed an integrated analysis of regional alluvial fan, lacustrine and paleobotanical records for the area comparing them with hemispheric and regional paleoclimate proxies. Our focus was on the potential role the Tropical Pacific has as a synoptic pattern modulator and moisture source for hydrogeomorphic activity in the region.
Our analysis indicates that the onset of alluvial fan aggradation in most of the region at ∼13.5 ka could have been a response to semi-permanent El Niño-like conditions in the Tropical Pacific, which enhanced the frequency of winter frontal storms as well as increased penetration of tropical cyclones in the region. The North American Monsoon was restricted in extent and intensity until ∼7 ka and probably was not a major factor in alluvial fan aggradation. A second stage of alluvial fan aggradation from 11.5 to ∼9 ka was dominated by hyper-concentrated flows and sheet-flood sedimentation, along with deposition in fluvial settings. Storms were probably were linked to landfall of enhanced water vapor bands in the leading edge of winter extra-tropical cyclones with moisture advected directly from the Tropical Pacific. At ∼8 ka, favorable conditions for the occurrence of these storms waned and storm tracks shifted northward.
Analysis of modern analogs for storm types described above as prevalent during this period indicates that changes in circulation patterns across the Tropical Pacific can affect storm properties enough to explain the observed geomorphic effects, regardless of other factors traditionally considered of large impact like vegetation change. Our results suggest that the Tropical Pacific plays a larger role than currently thought in landscape evolution of the region.

Elevated carbon dioxide making arid regions greener

AGU press release today:

Elevated carbon dioxide making arid regions greener

WASHINGTON—Scientists have long suspected that a flourishing of green foliage around the globe, observed since the early 1980s in satellite data, springs at least in part from the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. Now, a study of arid regions around the globe finds that a carbon dioxide "fertilization effect" has, indeed, caused a gradual greening from 1982 to 2010.

Focusing on the southwestern corner of North America, Australia's outback, the Middle East, and some parts of Africa, Randall Donohue of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Canberra, Australia and his colleagues developed and applied a mathematical model to predict the extent of the carbon-dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. They then tested this prediction by studying satellite imagery and teasing out the influence of carbon dioxide on greening from other factors such as precipitation, air temperature, the amount of light, and land-use changes.

The team's model predicted that foliage would increase by some 5 to 10 percent given the 14 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the study period. The satellite data agreed, showing an 11 percent increase in foliage after adjusting the data for precipitation, yielding "strong support for our hypothesis," the team reports.

"Lots of papers have shown an average increase in vegetation across the globe, and there is a lot of speculation about what's causing that," said Donohue of CSIRO's Land and Water research division, who is lead author of the new study. "Up until this point, they've linked the greening to fairly obvious climatic variables, such as a rise in temperature where it is normally cold or a rise in rainfall where it is normally dry. Lots of those papers speculated about the CO2 effect, but it has been very difficult to prove."

He and his colleagues present their findings in an article that has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The team looked for signs of CO2 fertilization in arid areas, Donohue said, because "satellites are very good at detecting changes in total leaf cover, and it is in warm, dry environments that the CO2 effect is expected to most influence leaf cover." Leaf cover is the clue, he added, because "a leaf can extract more carbon from the air during photosynthesis, or lose less water to the air during photosynthesis, or both, due to elevated CO2." That is the CO2 fertilization effect.

But leaf cover in warm, wet places like tropical rainforests is already about as extensive as it can get and is unlikely to increase with higher CO2 concentrations. In warm, dry places, on the other hand, leaf cover is less complete, so plants there will make more leaves if they have enough water to do so. "If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves, and this should be measurable from satellite," Donohue explained.

To tease out the actual CO2 fertilization effect from other environmental factors in these regions, the researchers first averaged the greenness of each location across 3-year periods to account for changes in soil wetness and then grouped that greenness data from the different locations according to their amounts of precipitation. The team then identified the maximum amount of foliage each group could attain for a given precipitation, and tracked variations in maximum foliage over the course of 20 years. This allowed the scientists to remove the influence of precipitation and other climatic variations and recognize the long-term greening trend.

In addition to greening dry regions, the CO2 fertilization effect could switch the types of vegetation that dominate in those regions. "Trees are re-invading grass lands, and this could quite possibly be related to the CO2 effect," Donohue said. "Long lived woody plants are deep rooted and are likely to benefit more than grasses from an increase in CO2."

"The effect of higher carbon dioxide levels on plant function is an important process that needs greater consideration," said Donohue. "Even if nothing else in the climate changes as global CO2 levels rise, we will still see significant environmental changes because of the CO2 fertilization effect."

Prior post on this paper including abstract: 

New paper finds a large CO2 fertilization effect greening the globe since 1982

Thursday, May 30, 2013

So Far, Climate Scepticism is Right

A new SPPI paper by Christopher Monckton of Brenchly


so_far_wrong
[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]

So far, the climate skeptics are right, the cry-babies wrong.
...
The cost of mitigating just 1 C° of this century’s predicted 3 C° warming via worldwide carbon taxes, emissions trading, windmills and suchlike fooleries (for all are as cost-ineffective as Australia’s tax) would be $3.2 quadrillion.

Just to cut the 1/6 C° warming predicted for the current decade would cost the world $540 trillion, or $77,000 for every man, woman and child on Earth, or 80% of ten years’ global GDP. Yet the Stern report of 2006 costs letting 3 C° warming happen this century at just 1.5% of GDP. Even if the world warms by 3 C° this century (it won’t), and even if the cost of letting 3 C° happen were as much as 1.5% of GDP (it isn’t), it costs 50 times more to act today than to adapt later. 

The cost-ineffectiveness of probably-needless climate mitigation, not indifference to our grandchildren’s fate, is why governments are rightly ignoring the cry-babies crying Wolf.

New paper finds rainforests prospered & increased diversity during extreme global warming in the past

A new paper published in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science finds South American rainforests thrived during three extreme global warming events in the past, each with temperatures much warmer than the present. "According to the fossil record, rainforests prospered under these hothouse conditions and diversity increased." "When carbon dioxide concentrations double, trees use much less water, which is further evidence that tropical forests may prove resilient to climate change."

Rainforests Take the Heat, Paleontologists Show


Previous global warming events led to more diverse tropical forests. This is a view of the lowland tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island in Panama. (Credit: STRI)
May 30, 2013 — South American rainforests thrived during three extreme global warming events in the past, say paleontologists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in a new report published in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science

No tropical forests in South America currently experience average yearly temperatures of more than 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius). But by the end of this century, average global temperatures are likely to rise by another 1 F (0.6 C), leading some scientists to predict the demise of the world's most diverse terrestrial ecosystem.

Carlos Jaramillo, Cofrin Chair in Palynology, and Andrés Cárdenas, post-doctoral fellow, at the Smithsonian in Panama reviewed almost 6,000 published measurements of ancient temperatures to provide a deep-time perspective for the debate.

"To take the temperature of the past we rely on indirect evidence like oxygen isotope ratios in the fossil shells of marine organisms or from bacteria biomarkers," said Jaramillo.

When intense volcanic activity produced huge quantities of carbon dioxide 120 million years ago in the mid-Cretaceous period, yearly temperatures in the South American tropics rose 9 F (5 C). During the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, 55 million years ago, tropical temperatures rose by 5 F (3 C) in less than 10,000 years.

About 53 million years ago, temperatures soared again.

According to the fossil record, rainforests prospered under these hothouse conditions. Diversity increased. 

Because larger areas of forest generally sustain higher diversity than smaller areas do, higher diversity during warming events could be explained by the expansion of tropical forests into temperate areas. "But to our surprise, rainforests never extended much beyond the modern tropical belt, so something other than temperature must have determined where they were growing," said Jaramillo.

Jaramillo and Cárdenas' report also refers to findings by Smithsonian plant physiologist Klaus Winter that leaves of some tropical trees tolerate short-term exposure to temperatures up to 122 F (5 C). When carbon dioxide concentrations double, trees use much less water, which is further evidence that tropical forests may prove resilient to climate change.

New paper finds global warming caused by CFCs, not CO2; predicts cooling for next 50-70 years

Settled science daily update:

Global Warming Caused by CFCs, Not Carbon Dioxide, Researcher Claims in Controversial Study


False-color view of total ozone over the Antarctic pole, as of May 27, 2013. The purple and blue colors are where there is the least ozone, and the yellows and reds are where there is more ozone. (Credit: NASA)
Science Daily  May 30, 2013 — Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are to blame for global warming since the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to a researcher from the University of Waterloo in a controversial new study published in the International Journal of Modern Physics B this week.

CFCs are already known to deplete ozone, but in-depth statistical analysis now suggests that CFCs are also the key driver in global climate change, rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the researcher argues.

"Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global warming. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is wrong," said Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science. "In fact, the data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming."

"Most conventional theories expect that global temperatures will continue to increase as CO2 levels continue to rise, as they have done since 1850. What's striking is that since 2002, global temperatures have actually declined -- matching a decline in CFCs in the atmosphere," Professor Lu said. "My calculations of CFC greenhouse effect show that there was global warming by about 0.6 °C from 1950 to 2002, but the earth has actually cooled since 2002. The cooling trend is set to continue for the next 50-70 years as the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere continues to decline."

The findings are based on in-depth statistical analyses of observed data from 1850 up to the present time, Professor Lu's cosmic-ray-driven electron-reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion and his previous research into Antarctic ozone depletion and global surface temperatures.

"It was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth's ozone layer was depleted by the sun's ultraviolet light-induced destruction of CFCs in the atmosphere," he said. "But in contrast, CRE theory says cosmic rays -- energy particles originating in space -- play the dominant role in breaking down ozone-depleting molecules and then ozone."

Lu's theory has been confirmed by ongoing observations of cosmic ray, CFC, ozone and stratospheric temperature data over several 11-year solar cycles. "CRE is the only theory that provides us with an excellent reproduction of 11-year cyclic variations of both polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling," said Professor Lu. "After removing the natural cosmic-ray effect, my new paper shows a pronounced recovery by ~20% of the Antarctic ozone hole, consistent with the decline of CFCs in the polar stratosphere."

By demonstrating the link between CFCs, ozone depletion and temperature changes in the Antarctic, Professor Lu was able to draw almost perfect correlation between rising global surface temperatures and CFCs in the atmosphere.

"The climate in the Antarctic stratosphere has been completely controlled by CFCs and cosmic rays, with no CO2 impact. The change in global surface temperature after the removal of the solar effect has shown zero correlation with CO2 but a nearly perfect linear correlation with CFCs -- a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97."

Data recorded from 1850 to 1970, before any significant CFC emissions, show that CO2 levels increased significantly as a result of the Industrial Revolution, but the global temperature, excluding the solar effect, kept nearly constant. The conventional warming model of CO2, suggests the temperatures should have risen by 0.6°C over the same period, similar to the period of 1970-2002.

The analyses support Lu's CRE theory and point to the success of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

"We've known for some time that CFCs have a really damaging effect on our atmosphere and we've taken measures to reduce their emissions," Professor Lu said. "We now know that international efforts such as the Montreal Protocol have also had a profound effect on global warming but they must be placed on firmer scientific ground."

"This study underlines the importance of understanding the basic science underlying ozone depletion and global climate change," said Terry McMahon, dean of the faculty of science. "This research is of particular importance not only to the research community, but to policy makers and the public alike as we look to the future of our climate."

Professor Lu's paper, "Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change," also predicts that the global sea level will continue to rise for some years as the hole in the ozone recovers increasing ice melting in the polar regions.

"Only when the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar ozone hole recovery, will both temperature and polar ice melting drop concurrently," says Lu.

The peer-reviewed paper published this week not only provides new fundamental understanding of the ozone hole and global climate change but has superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional sunlight-driven ozone-depleting and CO2-warming models, Lu argues.


Preprint of paper H/T WUWThttp://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.6844.pdf
See also: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.1498.pdf

Global warming caused by CFCs, not carbon dioxide, study says

 IMAGE: Chlorofluorocarbons are to blame for global warming since the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to new research from the University of Waterloo published in the International Journal of Modern...
Click here for more information.

WATERLOO, Ont. (Thursday, May 30, 2013) - Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are to blame for global warming since the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to new research from the University of Waterloo published in the International Journal of Modern Physics B this week.

CFCs are already known to deplete ozone, but in-depth statistical analysis now shows that CFCs are also the key driver in global climate change, rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
"Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global warming. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is wrong," said Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science. "In fact, the data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming."

"Most conventional theories expect that global temperatures will continue to increase as CO2 levels continue to rise, as they have done since 1850. What's striking is that since 2002, global temperatures have actually declined – matching a decline in CFCs in the atmosphere," Professor Lu said. "My calculations of CFC greenhouse effect show that there was global warming by about 0.6 °C from 1950 to 2002, but the earth has actually cooled since 2002. The cooling trend is set to continue for the next 50-70 years as the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere continues to decline."

The findings are based on in-depth statistical analyses of observed data from 1850 up to the present time, Professor Lu's cosmic-ray-driven electron-reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion and his previous research into Antarctic ozone depletion and global surface temperatures.

 IMAGE: Chlorofluorocarbons are to blame for global warming since the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to new research from the University of Waterloo published in the International Journal of Modern...
Click here for more information.

"It was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth's ozone layer was depleted by the sun's ultraviolet light-induced destruction of CFCs in the atmosphere," he said. "But in contrast, CRE theory says cosmic rays – energy particles originating in space – play the dominant role in breaking down ozone-depleting molecules and then ozone."

Lu's theory has been confirmed by ongoing observations of cosmic ray, CFC, ozone and stratospheric temperature data over several 11-year solar cycles. "CRE is the only theory that provides us with an excellent reproduction of 11-year cyclic variations of both polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling," said Professor Lu. "After removing the natural cosmic-ray effect, my new paper shows a pronounced recovery by ~20% of the Antarctic ozone hole, consistent with the decline of CFCs in the polar stratosphere."

By proving the link between CFCs, ozone depletion and temperature changes in the Antarctic, Professor Lu was able to draw almost perfect correlation between rising global surface temperatures and CFCs in the atmosphere.

"The climate in the Antarctic stratosphere has been completely controlled by CFCs and cosmic rays, with no CO2 impact. The change in global surface temperature after the removal of the solar effect has shown zero correlation with CO2 but a nearly perfect linear correlation with CFCs - a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97."

Data recorded from 1850 to 1970, before any significant CFC emissions, show that CO2 levels increased significantly as a result of the Industrial Revolution, but the global temperature, excluding the solar effect, kept nearly constant. The conventional warming model of CO2, suggests the temperatures should have risen by 0.6°C over the same period, similar to the period of 1970-2002.
The analyses indicate the dominance of Lu's CRE theory and the success of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

 IMAGE: Chlorofluorocarbons are to blame for global warming since the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to new research from the University of Waterloo published in the International Journal of Modern...
Click here for more information.

"We've known for some time that CFCs have a really damaging effect on our atmosphere and we've taken measures to reduce their emissions," Professor Lu said. "We now know that international efforts such as the Montreal Protocol have also had a profound effect on global warming but they must be placed on firmer scientific ground."

"This study underlines the importance of understanding the basic science underlying ozone depletion and global climate change," said Terry McMahon, dean of the faculty of science. "This research is of particular importance not only to the research community, but to policy makers and the public alike as we look to the future of our climate."

Professor Lu's paper, Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change, also predicts that the global sea level will continue to rise for some years as the hole in the ozone recovers increasing ice melting in the polar regions.

"Only when the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar ozone hole recovery, will both temperature and polar ice melting drop concurrently," says Lu.
The peer-reviewed paper published this week not only provides new fundamental understanding of the ozone hole and global climate change but has superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional sunlight-driven ozone-depleting and CO2-warming models.
###
Journal reference
Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and
Global Climate Change
Qing-Bin Lu, University of Waterloo
Published on May 30 in International Journal of Modern Physics B Vol. 27 (2013) 1350073 (38 pages).