Friday, December 20, 2013

New paper finds another mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that solar activity modulates the natural ocean oscillations the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] and the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]. These ocean oscillations, in turn, have large scale effects upon global climate. 

The authors find when the PDO is in phase with the 11 year sunspot cycle, the pattern of sea level pressures and surface temperatures shift in comparison to when they are out of phase. The authors also find the NAO is amplified when it is in phase with the sunspot cycle. 

These effects may represent another solar amplification mechanism by which tiny 0.1% changes in solar activity can be amplified to large scale effects upon climate.

Interactions between externally-forced climate signals from sunspot peaks and the internally-generated Pacific Decadal and North Atlantic Oscillations
Harry van Loon, Gerald A. Meehl

Abstract

When the PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] is in phase with the 11 year sunspot cycle there are positive SLP [sea level pressure] anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, nearly no anomalous zonal SLP gradient across the equatorial Pacific, and a mix of small positive and negative SST [sea surface temperature] anomalies there. When the two indices are out of phase, positive SLP anomalies extend farther south in the Gulf of Alaska and west into eastern Russia, with a strengthened anomalous zonal equatorial Pacific SLP gradient and larger magnitude and more extensive negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific. In the North Atlantic, when the NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] is in phase with the sunspot peaks, there is an intensified positive NAO SLP pattern. When the NAO is out of phase with the peaks, there is the opposite pattern (negative NAO). The relationships are physically consistent with previously identified processes and mechanisms, and point the way to further research.

9 comments:

  1. Old news.

    "Before it is safe to attribute a global warming or a global cooling effect to any other factor (CO2 in particular) it is necessary to disentangle the simultaneous overlapping positive and negative effects of solar variation, PDO/ENSO and the other oceanic cycles. Sometimes they work in unison, sometimes they work against each other and until a formula has been developed to work in a majority of situations all our guesses about climate change must come to nought."

    from here:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/

    Published by Stephen Wilde May 21, 2008

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    1. As far as I can understand it, the paper doesn't deal with global changes but with what happens at solar peaks in the 11 year cycle.

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    2. The PDO/ENSO and NAO affect global climate, therefore the paper does deal with global changes. It also implies effects at all stages of the solar cycle, not just peaks.

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    3. Not so. It means it is strictly looking at the solar peaks as far as I can see. It means nothing to the other 9-10 years when anything can happen to the global climate. It says so in the title.

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  2. The Farmers Almanac has been predicting Climate 2 years in advance since 1818 and has gotten their forecasts correct 80% to 85% of the time. And their method is primarily based on solar cycle observations.

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  3. This year the Canadian Sardine Fishery collapsed due to cooler temperatures due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In fact cooler water all the way south to California.

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  4. Remember when Dow was losing all those mega-award lawsuits due to broken breast implants and the negative effects that just EVERYbody knew the silicone was causing to women's bodies, then the science finally caught up and said, nope, no causal effects. That's just about where we are with AGW. All of The Beautiful People just know that mankind's effect on the world MUST be detrimental (and no Beautiful Person license is issued if you fail to subscribe, enthusiastically to this...), and along comes that nasty thing "science". Critical thinking is so foreign to this sect, and they fight it with every fiber in their being. Irrationality is so much fun when everybody is doing it...

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  5. What does it mean to say that the solar cycle is "in phase" with the PDO?

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    1. The PDO has positive and negative phases.

      If the PDO is in a positive phase and the solar cycle is also on the upside, then they are "in phase," or if both are trending negative, they are also "in phase."

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